Brexit – deal or no deal?

In my last blog on the subject of Brexit, 6 weeks ago, I rather pessimistically concluded:While it is true we are where we are and need to respond accordingly, we are not where we should be. In my gloom, I cannot see a way forward and while I can stick my oar in with posts like these, others will no doubt be fighting the battles. I must watch, pray and be patient, knowing the Almighty will have the final say”. While my confidence remains that the Almighty will do something great to get Great Britain out of the mess it appears now to be in, when it comes to withdrawing from the EU, it will be despite the politicians and not because of them and it will not be what the good people who are praying all manner of contradictory prayers are praying and with different hopes either. My present concerns relate to two articles: “Brexit: Date for vote on Theresa May’s deal confirmed” and “Brexit: Second Commons defeat for Theresa May in 24 hours”.

The first is to do with next Tuesday’s vote in the Commons, whether or not to agree the deal Mrs May’s government has negotiated with the EU on leaving the EU, having delayed the plan to vote on this earlier because it would likely be defeated. Despite tweaks and words of assurance and no doubt up front and behind the scenes arm twisting of MPs, the expectation is this will still not get passed: on the Tory side too many believe this to be a sell out too far and on Labour their’s irrespective is to oppose and force a General Election. As for the second article: “It means the government will have to come up with revised plans within three days if Mrs May’s EU withdrawal deal is rejected by MPs next week. It could also open the door to alternatives, such as a referendum”, and that the government’s hand is now being forced to come up with a deal.

Besides being in the “hard” Brexit camp and by that I mean I want us to leave the EU, and while I would hope for an amicable divorce settlement, we need to relinquish all beholdeness to the EU when it comes to control and laws, doing trade deals, controlling borders, and when paying money it is strictly what we owe etc. My euro-skepticism has increased since the EU referendum as it has become clearer the EU is more about control than cooperation. I recoil from the thought of the likes of Macron and Junker calling the shots. Moreover, despite claims that when people voted “Leave” in the EU Referendum they didn’t sufficiently know what they were voting for, I believe they knew all too well. I concede though neither side of the debate have covered themselves with glory – on the Remain side it remains about Project Fear; on the Leave side about Project mislead and prejudice. While there are a few bright lights in the political class saying it as it is, they are few and far between.

I don’t wish go over my belief that Theresa May has made a pig’s ear over the negotiations, hardly surprising given her views at the outset and failure to understand and implement the will of the people. Neither do I claim deep knowledge concerning the details of the “deal” nor how we got there. But I re-iterate my earlier points, which is that this is a bad deal and no deal is better than a bad deal and my disappointment that it has to be all or nothing. It is no-one’s interest, notably those remaining in the EU, who export to the UK a lot more than they import, for there to be no agreement regarding trade and not to make a multitude of desirable common sense moves to effect a smooth transition. But we are where we are and the government is in an unenviable position of having the deal they put on the table rejected by Parliament and being pressurized into soon after that making a deal with those who have stated it has to be this deal of nothing. Where do we go next?

I see two things on the horizons that will quite possibly play a part in the end game scenario we are now in. Mainstream media being the fake news it is has played down the popularist anti-globalist (and therefore anti-EU) uprising taking place in many EU countries, notably in France, but in many other EU countries where not so dissimilar concerns are being raised, threatening a radical change to the status quo including government and this will likely have a bearing even though the March 29th leave date is scarily close. The other thing is prophecy. A friend of mine prophesised a great earthquake taking place around London that will have a profound effect on the financial institutions, and what if that were to happen very soon? Another friend has sensed God like a grand master has so arranged the pieces on the chess board and is ready to call check mate and deliver the nation from EU tyranny and more. When it comes to Theresa May, her days are numbered but then only the Almighty knows how many. Of course with both these two “things” I merely watch and weigh, and sensing we will all be in for a surprise.

I don’t purport to have hidden knowledge on these matters (which was the heresy of the Gnostics) but as I listen to the news, speak to people and see what is written in social media, I accept being faced with the uncertainly we have now affects and understandably bothers us all, regardless of our views on Brexit. I sense great anxiety and concern over what might happen when the leave deadline comes and goes. It should be added this is all part of what people feel the world over. I can only reiterate what I often do – now is not the time to be afraid but rather to trust in the One who does all things well. For my part, I can only point out we voted to leave regardless of “the deal” and our leaders need to respect this. Not that I expect the powers that be will listen to my advice and some reading this will strongly disagree but my parting two penneth is for our government to do what the people voted for and make a clean break with the EU while still wanting constructive relations, even if that means no deal (saving a big divorce settlement payment).

The sooner we tell our EU counterparts the better, and if need be I might feel inclined to add the words of Mr Bean, because I am optimistic good will come of calling anyone’s bluff, to them who might take issue. And finally, to clarify, I don’t purport to know God’s full will regarding Brexit, but it is my prayer His will be done.

Update 14/01/2019: A lot of activity and a lot of noise but seemingly little progress ahead of tomorrow’s crucial vote. When I read my favorite newspaper in Joe’s cafe this morning the headline was the letter signed by several ex Tory ministers urging party parliamentary colleagues to reject this bad deal, with the sub headline of Theresa May trying to rally the troops and assure colleagues all will be well and trying to convince skeptical listeners of the reassurances of our EU counterparts . Then there were snippits in the news about different groups making contradictory points as to what needed to be done and varying plots to achieve their end. The various what if and what next scenarios are described in the online BBC news headline: “Brexit vote: What could happen next?” Sad as it may be, the lack of consensus, the dearth of ideas of what to do next and the increase in uncertainty comes as no surprise. While many await tomorrows drama more with consternation than anticipation, I wait on Him who has the final say.

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