Having been over a month between posting my last Brexitwatch installment (see here) and the one before, it has been only a week since I posted last, yet due to events unfolding I am now posting the latest episode of this extraordinary saga. I have no doubt there will be further bombshells soon to come, including the unexpected.
I am reluctent to go over the events of the past few days given that these have been blasted out by all sections of the media with all and sundry it seems wading in with their views. Notably all this has occurred following Parliament returning for business on Tuesday, but here are my thoughts… Boris has placed a lot of store on getting a deal, which providing his hands were not tied he was confident of getting (so he claimed). The Commons had other ideas, fearing a no deal Brexit, and have mandated him to ask for an extension to the October 31 deadline leaving date if a deal can’t be reached. While the Lords can hold up proceedings, they look unlikely to do so despite all sorts of amendments being tabled and it is likely this Bill will become law very soon and with the 21 Conservative MPs that voted for the Bill now being expelled from the Party. Boris, not willing to eat humble pie, in the meantime, he asked to dissolve Parliament, and call for a General Election, which was not granted given a 2/3rds majority is needed and Labour weren’t playing ball.
People will have different takes on these recent events and opinions as to what has happened next, including honourable friends who think very different to me, but this is my take … As discussed in earlier blogs, Boris was in my view the best candidate to take over from Theresa May, whose tenure as Prime Minister was disastrous due in main to her duplicitous and inept appeasement tactics and failure to “get it” (or had she been nobbled). I have to declare though that, sadly, integrity is not Boris’ strongest suit even though I much prefer his approach toward Brexit over that of Theresa’s, and I quite get it that a large number doubt his rhetoric. He began by saying the chances of the UK NOT getting a deal were very small and it quickly became apparent despite him continuing to hype up the prospect that it was almost entirely the opposite. Other than changing the Irish backstop provision in the thrice defeated Theresa May withdrawal agreement, he showed little by way of addressing the fundamental flaws in the “agreement” that make it unacceptable to many Leavers as that way the UK neither has its cake nor can eat it.
But we are where we are and who can say what will happen next other than expect more twists in the tale. As for extending the deadline, it could even be the EU will refuse this. And whatever else Boris may be, he isn’t daft and methinks he has cards up his sleeve ready to be played. One wonders if his forseeing these happening was behind him proroging Parliament. I suspect a General Election will happen in the near future with everything to play for. While I have reservations over a Boris led Conservative Party there are even more for ALL the other parliamentary party leaders, bar maybe Arlene Foster (DUP). I say this because while they claim the moral hight ground it seems clear to me at least they are putting they their claim to know best (to be kind) above the will of the people and is why a people’s vote is prefered to the current delay Brexit position.
The person / party that may hold the key to delivering a satisfactory Brexit is Nigel Farage / the Brexit Party. Boris has gone on record saying he will not form a non-aggression pact with Nigel, which makes sense given the goal is to leave the EU on advantageous terms. Nigel reciprocated by saying he won’t do business with Boris unless he agrees to go for an (unlikely) hard Brexit that Nigel (and me) thinks is needed or no deal at all, which logically is a shame, as not doing so would likely split the Leave vote and could allow Jeremy in. The big question is what will Boris now do?
One of the biggest concerns I have in this whole Brexit business is how it has divided the nation, untowardly affected relationships and distracted us from addressing a multitude of other needs. I have no doubt that leaving the EU is the right way for the UK to go with appropriate actions to compensate for no deal and is an essential plank in the resistance to empower individuals and withstand global tyranny. But who cares what I think? Humanly speaking is neither here nor there, but divinely speaking (who can raise up and cast down), that is another matter, and as I keenly follow developments in the weeks to come, that is where I will be setting out my store.